Renewable Energy Potential Analysis for Ethiopia

Project Overview

This project analyzes renewable energy potential in Ethiopia through two complementary approaches:

1. National Annual Analysis: Land availability assessment for wind/PV across Ethiopia

2. City Diurnal Analysis: Optimization model for PV+battery systems in Arsi Negele city

Key Features

• Land Availability Analysis

  • Exclusion layers: Population density, protected areas, elevation

  • Capacity potential calculation using Atlite

  • Spatial visualization of eligible areas

  • Energy System Optimization

  • Hourly resolution optimization model

  • PV + battery storage system

  • Synthetic load profile generation

  • Performance metrics calculation

Key Equations

Objective Function (Minimize Total Cost):

Minimize: C_total = C_pv × P_pv + C_batt × E_batt

• C_pv: PV capital cost (€/kW)
• P_pv: PV capacity (kW)
• C_batt: Battery capital cost (€/kWh)
• E_batt: Battery energy capacity (kWh)

Energy Balance (∀ t ∈ T)

P_pv × CF_pv(t) + P_dis(t) = L(t) + P_ch(t) + P_curt(t)

• CF_pv(t): PV capacity factor [0-1]
• P_dis(t): Discharge power (kW)
• L(t): Load demand (kW)
• P_ch(t): Charge power (kW)
• P_curt(t): Curtailed power (kW)

Battery Dynamics

• SOC(t) = SOC(t-1) + η_ch × P_ch(t) - (P_dis(t)/η_dis)

• SOC(0) = 0.1 × E_batt

• 0 ≤ SOC(t) ≤ E_batt

• η_ch, η_dis = 0.9 (efficiencies)

Technical Constraints

P_pv ≥ max(L(t)) / max(CF_pv(t))

P_dis(t) ≤ E_batt - SOC(t-1)

load-profile-generation

• Sector-Specific Patterns:

• Residential: Dual peaks (8 AM & 8 PM) with elevated base load

• Commercial: Midday peak (1 PM) with weekend reduction

• Agricultural: Dual daytime peaks (8 AM & 2 PM)

Realistic Scaling:

• Peak demand ≈5-6.5 MW

• Average demand ≈3.5-4 MW

• Minimum nighttime demand ≈1.5-2 MW

Demand Allocation:

• Residential: 50%

• Commercial: 30%

• Agricultural: 20%

Real-World Considerations:

• Weekend commercial reduction (40% decrease)

• Agricultural activity limited to daylight hours

• Random variations in demand (±10-20%)

Notation Key

Symbol	Description
CFpv	PV capacity factor
SOC	State of Charge
ηch	Charge efficiency
ηdis	Discharge efficiency
h(t)	Hour of day (0-23)