Add blob trees and montecarlo simulation

ctoframework · Feb 18, 2025 · 925a63e · 925a63e
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diff --git a/docs/delivery/estimations/montecarlo-simulations.md b/docs/delivery/estimations/montecarlo-simulations.md
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+# Monte Carlo simulations
+
+Monte Carlo methods are a powerful tool for making data-driven decisions in environments with uncertainty. They use random sampling to model possible outcomes and estimate probabilities, helping to assess risks, optimize processes, and forecast performance.
+
+For example, in software delivery, Monte Carlo simulations can predict project timelines by running thousands of simulations based on historical data. Instead of relying on a single estimate, this approach provides a probability distribution of completion dates, offering a realistic view of potential delays.
+
+In financial planning, Monte Carlo can model different cost scenarios, helping to anticipate budget overruns. Similarly, in system reliability, it can simulate failure rates to improve resilience and maintenance strategies.
+
+Leveraging Monte Carlo methods, decision-making becomes less reliant on intuition and more grounded in probabilistic analysis, leading to more predictable and optimized outcomes.
+
+---
+
+## Concrete Example: Project Delivery Forecast
+
+Imagine a software team wants to predict how long a project will take to complete. Based on historical data:
+
+- The team completes between **5 and 15 tasks per week** (with an average of 10).
+- The project has **200 tasks** remaining.
+
+Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we run **10,000 iterations**, each time randomly selecting a completion rate between 5 and 15 tasks per week. The results might look like this:
+
+- **10% chance** of finishing in **13 weeks** (best case).
+- **50% chance** (median) of finishing in **17 weeks**.
+- **90% chance** of finishing in **22 weeks** (worst-case but likely scenario).
+
+This approach provides a **probabilistic range** instead of a single estimate, allowing for better planning and risk management. It helps answer critical questions like:
+
+- _What is the likelihood of completing within 18 weeks?_
+- _How much buffer should we plan for?_
diff --git a/docs/images/blob-tree.png b/docs/images/blob-tree.png
diff --git a/docs/people/feedback/blob-tree.md b/docs/people/feedback/blob-tree.md
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+# The Blob Tree
+
+The **Blob Tree** is a visual tool often used to assess emotions, team dynamics, and individual perspectives within an organization. It consists of various blob-like human figures positioned in different scenarios on a tree—some climbing, some at the top, some falling, some helping others, etc. This tool can be particularly useful in leadership, management, and organizational development contexts.
+
+![Blob tree](/images/blob-tree.png)
+
+## How It’s Used in a Tech Leadership Context
+
+### 1. Team Morale & Well-Being
+
+- Individuals can point to a figure that represents how they currently feel in their role.
+- Helps gauge emotional and psychological safety within teams.
+
+### 2. Change Management
+
+- When an organization undergoes transformations (e.g., adopting new technology, restructuring, scaling), members can express where they feel they are in the process.
+- Identifies those who feel lost, overwhelmed, or thriving in change.
+
+### 3. Leadership Insights
+
+- Helps leaders understand team sentiment without direct questioning, which can sometimes lead to guarded responses.
+- Encourages open dialogue about struggles and aspirations.
+
+### 4. Collaboration & Support Mapping
+
+- Visualizes who feels supported and who feels isolated.
+- Encourages peer mentoring and collaboration.
+
+### 5. Career & Personal Growth Discussions
+
+- Employees can identify where they see themselves on the tree and where they aspire to be.
+- Facilitates conversations around career progression and professional development.
+
+By using the Blob Tree in strategic discussions, leaders can gain a deeper, more nuanced understanding of their teams beyond traditional surveys or feedback forms.
diff --git a/docs/people/stories.md b/docs/people/stories.md
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+# People stories in leadership
+
+## Janitor putting a man on the moon
+
+> In 1962, President John F. Kennedy visited NASA for the first time. During his tour of the facility, he met a janitor who was carrying a broom down the hallway. The President then casually asked the janitor what he did for NASA, and the janitor replied, **"I’m helping put a man on the moon."**
diff --git a/docs/resources/index.md b/docs/resources/index.md
@@ -2,7 +2,8 @@
 
 ## Podcasts
 
-| Name                 | Description                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | Link                                                                                |
-| -------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
-| Level-Up Engineering | Level-up Engineering brings you actionable management insights from top tech leaders. Each episode dives into real challenges engineering managers face—like hiring, motivating, and scaling teams—and how others have overcome them. Hosted by [@FancyKarolina](https://x.com/FancyKarolina){target=\_blank}, it uncovers best practices for managing people and organizations with the same precision you bring to code. | [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIXoDGCTXR6zc_AdddiQ6Mw){target=\_blank} |
-| The CTO podcast      | Conversation ranging from application development to IT governance, and infrastructure architecture with some of the brightest people in the industry.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     | [Website](https://thectoadvisor.com/thectopodcast/)                                 |
+| Name                               | Description                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | Link                                                                                |
+| ---------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
+| Level-Up Engineering               | Level-up Engineering brings you actionable management insights from top tech leaders. Each episode dives into real challenges engineering managers face—like hiring, motivating, and scaling teams—and how others have overcome them. Hosted by [@FancyKarolina](https://x.com/FancyKarolina){target=\_blank}, it uncovers best practices for managing people and organizations with the same precision you bring to code. | [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIXoDGCTXR6zc_AdddiQ6Mw){target=\_blank} |
+| The CTO podcast                    | Conversation ranging from application development to IT governance, and infrastructure architecture with some of the brightest people in the industry.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     | [Website](https://thectoadvisor.com/thectopodcast/)                                 |
+| The Engineering Leadership podcast | On this show, they uncover stories and examples of great leadership in software engineering, explore the experiences of industry leaders, as well as share actionable insights from leadership and management thought experts artful and skilled in the application of leadership.                                                                                                                                         | [Website](https://sfelc.com/podcasts)                                               |